Speaker: Steven Dundas, Assistant Professor, Department of Applied Economics, OSU
Topic: Hold the Line: Modeling private coastal adaptation through shoreline armoring decisions
A primary conduit for coastal adaptation to climate change on private land is the hardening, or armoring, of the shoreline for protection against the effects of erosion and sea-level rise (SLR). When such decisions are made at the parcel-level, there is potential for spatial spillovers, including externalities due to deflected wave action and peer effects. We provide empirical evidence from Oregon’s Goal 18 land use planning goal using a panel of parcel-level data from 1990 - 2015 that suggests the impacts of spatial spillovers tend to dominate that of coastal risks on increasing the probability of an armoring decision. Our simulation results show that excluding spatial spillovers may under-predict future armoring by 108 percent. From scenario-based simulations, we find a significant 10 percent increase in armoring due to SLR within three decades. We then demonstrate the primacy of policy, as a combination of SLR and removing the current policy that limits armoring has potential to increase future armoring by 134 percent.
Thursday, October 17 at 3:30pm to 4:30pm
Hatfield Marine Science Center, Guin Library Seminar Room
2030 SE Marine Science Dr, Newport, OR 97365
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