HMSC Science on Tap: Minutes Count: In Preparation for the Next Great Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 6pm to 7pm
About this Event
2030 SE Marine Science Dr, Newport, OR 97365
Speaker: Jonathan Allan, Ph.D, RG | Coastal Geomorphologist, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries
Topic: Minutes Count: In Preparation for the Next Great Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami
Geologic evidence from the past 10,000 years indicates the occurrence of 19 great earthquakes that ruptured the full margin of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). The average recurrence interval of these large earthquake events is about 500 years. An additional 26 smaller earthquakes with associated surface ruptures, have occurred along the southern Oregon coast and northern California over the last 10,000 years, giving a combined average recurrence of about 220 years between events. Geologists estimate there is about a 16-22% chance of a CSZ earthquake taking place in the next 50 years, while the odds of a partial rupture on the southern Oregon coast are much higher at about 37-43%. Were such an event to take place today, the effects would be catastrophic. Between 2010 and 2013, the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) completed coastwide tsunami inundation modeling. The focus of DOGAMI has since moved to: 1) evaluating evacuation routes and required travel speeds needed to “beat the wave” to high ground; 2) undertaking new maritime modeling in key ports and harbors; and, 3) assessing risks using the FEMA Hazus model to evaluate the potential for casualties, building exposure, damage, and losses for potentially impacted communities. Come join us to learn more about these new mapping products and methods for mitigating the potential large loss of life from a CSZ event.
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